As Sudan marks two years since the eruption of war between rival military factions—the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF)—the country stands at a dangerous crossroads. As the war enters its third year, the army has regained control of Khartoum, as well as the central, eastern, and northern regions, while the RSF continues to dominate Darfur and pushes to seize the city of Al Fasher. Just this week, the RSF launched a new attack on civilians in Al Fasher echoing the atrocities committed in Al Geneina in 2023, this time targeting the Zaghawa ethnic group in Zamzam Camp.
Recent RSF moves to form a parallel government signal a dangerous drift toward chaotic semi-partition, threatening a prolonged conflict that would destabilize the entire Sahel and Horn of Africa regions.
Once celebrated for its inspiring nonviolent revolution in 2019 that ousted long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir, Sudan is now engulfed in one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Since the conflict broke out in April 2023, more than 15 million people have fled their homes and over 30 million people need aid, including 24.6 million facing acute hunger, according to United Nations agencies. And, although reliable numbers remain unknown, by some estimates, as many as 150,000 people have been killed in the first year of fighting alone. As the country marks two years of war this week, the question that looms large is whether hope for a democratic future still lives or has it vanished amid the gunfire and violence of war?
A Legacy of Nonviolent Resistance
Sudan’s history is punctuated by moments of extraordinary civilian-led resistance. In 1964, before the independence of several African countries, Sudanese civil society, professional unions, and political opposition ousted one of the first dictators of modern Africa, General Ibrahim Abboud. It did so again in 1985, when massive demonstrations eventually led to the removal of President Gaafar Nimeiry. And, in 2019, it was a peaceful popular uprising that took down Bashir. The 2019 revolution, led by a grassroots resistance, symbolized by its chant “Silmiya” (“peaceful” in Arabic), represented a shining moment of hope. The world watched in admiration as millions of Sudanese braved bullets and beatings to demand a democratic future. Their courage led to the fall of Bashir and a brief transitional government shared between civilians and the military.
But this fragile arrangement began to unravel quickly. In October 2021, the Sudanese military, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, with help from the RSF and its commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti, took control of the government in Khartoum. After the coup, however, a power struggle between the two military leaders emerged, abruptly exploding into open warfare in April 2023. The conflict ended nonviolent organizing, devastated cities, displaced millions, and pushed Sudan into chaos.
During the war, both the Sudanese army and the RSF have consistently targeted nonviolent pro-democracy activists with torture, arrest, and killing. These peaceful groups had to shift efforts from nonviolent political organizing to providing lifesaving aid in the absence of State institutions. The Sudanese army seeks to delegitimize these actors, painting them as foreign agents or insurgents affiliated to the rival RSF to justify its repression. The harm being done to these groups is not just collateral damage; it is a strategic assault on the very idea of democratic civilian governance.
Looming Partition Risks Regional Chaos
The core civic forces in Sudanese society, such as professional unions, civil society groups, and women and youth groups, who once marched peacefully for change, are now caught between conscription, displacement, or death. Sudan’s new militarized politics is pulling the nation toward fragmentation rather than a unified future, with grave consequences for the Sahel and Horn of Africa region.
The Sudanese army, in an effort to reinforce old power structures, has increasingly turned to local tribal militias and irregular insurgents, including groups such as Al-Baraa Brigades, as a counterweight to the RSF’s territorial gains in central and north Sudan. These alignments risk fueling a wider proxy war, dragging in regional actors and reigniting dormant conflicts along Sudan’s borders. Beyond Darfur and the Kordofan regions, the RSF is deeply intertwined with both ethnic and geopolitical dynamics across the Sahel. The RSF has longstanding ethnic and logistical ties to armed networks in Chad, Libya, Niger, Mali, and the Central African Republic, many of which have served as recruitment grounds and supply routes. These transnational connections allow the RSF to operate beyond Sudan’s borders, turning Darfur into a potential launchpad for instability across the region. Thus, the RSF’s calls to establish a “parallel” government, a de facto independent territory in Sudan, would not only threaten national unity but also would pose a significant threat to peace and security throughout the Sahel.
These war dynamics expose the fractured nature of Sudanese statehood, where competing visions of identity, governance, and external regional actors’ interests clash, threatening national cohesion more than ever. Sudan already experienced war-induced partition, when South Sudan became its own country in 2011. In that case, one failed State was divided into two failed States. This time, however, another partition — or establishment of semi-autonomous territories — will not only unleash new waves of genocide and mass atrocities but also destabilize the security of the broader region. The only way to break the cycle of war is to strengthen the nonviolent prodemocracy movement inside Sudan, so that military governance can someday be replaced.
Enduring Resilience
The conflict is not just a battle between two generals, it is a war on the Sudanese people and their democratic aspirations. The Sudanese civilian pro-democracy movement, despite having toppled three of Africa’s most notorious dictators, has been systematically targeted by both sides. Activists have been arrested, tortured, and in many cases, killed. Journalists have been silenced, civil society organizations shuttered, and peaceful protest banned.
The nonviolent movement has also suffered from internal divisions, fueled by the war and conflicting leadership visions and positions on the conflict. The absence of a shared vision and united front has not only undermined the movement’s credibility but also has given armed actors justification to further target it. Now more than ever, building unified leadership is essential to reviving a stronger pro-democracy movement that can carry forward the hopes and dreams of a peaceful, democratic Sudan.
Although diminished, the spirit of Sudan’s nonviolent movement has not been extinguished. After the war paralyzed the entire State system and destroyed basic means of survival, the core nonviolent groups, called the Resistance Committees, reconfigured themselves as Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs), operating underground, coordinating aid, documenting atrocities, and keeping the dream of democracy alive. Working in independent and semi-isolated groups across the country, with no weapons, and few resources, the ERRs and other nonviolent groups possess moral clarity and the trust of the people they are serving, giving them more legitimacy than the Sudanese army or the RSF.
Thus, even under siege, civil resistance remains one of the most credible forces for positive change. Its resilience is rooted in its local legitimacy, its decentralized structure, and its unwavering commitment to peaceful transformation. Unlike the military factions, which thrive on coercion and division, the civilian movement draws strength from unity and a shared vision. It needs to be supported so that it can one day help shape not only a united, secure Sudan, but also a stable region.
Reviving Civic Space Starts in the Shattered Capital
Since independence in 1956, Sudan has remained an extremely centralized state, with political and administrative power concentrated in Khartoum. When war broke out in the capital in April 2023, it triggered the collapse of the entire state system. In March, the Sudanese army retook Khartoum. With RSF forces cleared from the capital, journalists were able to enter the city and collect survivors’ testimonies and document the extent of the city’s devastation. The military’s recapture of the city was followed by widespread extrajudicial killing of civilians by the army and allied militia. The military’s presence in Khartoum brings back memories of the Islamist era. This time, it is leveraging wartime fear to reassert its control.
Nevertheless, for many residents, ousting the RSF from the capital has ignited cautious hope for rebuilding obliterated infrastructure and reviving essential services. It could also open a path for revitalizing the nonviolent movement and restoring democratic aspirations. Supporting this return requires close monitoring of the nature of governance now taking shape under the military’s control. The international community must exert maximum pressure on warring parties to protect civil liberties and civic space in Khartoum. Doing so offers an opportunity to amplify the voices of Sudan’s silent majority and push for a peaceful democratic transition.
International actors must recalibrate their approach to Sudan. Efforts to end hostilities are commendable and a ceasefire would be a good first step, but it would not be sufficient. A lasting peace must reinvigorate civilian voices and lay the groundwork for civilian-led governance. Here are concrete policy actions that should be taken:
Expand and Strengthen Existing Sanctions to End Violence and Protect Civic Space: Existing sanctions by the United States, the U.N., the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Canada on armed actors and their affiliated businesses should be expanded to also target those responsible for violence against civic actors including journalists, resistance committees, opposition figures, and human rights defenders.
Impose Sanctions on Key External State Actors fueling the conflict: Additional sanctions should be levied by the U.N. Security Council and the United States on external State actors that sponsor the war and related pro-war illicit businesses. The United Arab Emirates, for example, is the main sponsor and business partner of the RSF, against whom Sudan submitted a case at the International Court of Justice. Egypt, on the other hand, remains a top ally of the Sudanese military by providing military and political support. Turkey has also played a destabilizing role by continuing to supply weapons to the army, prolonging the conflict. These external players have fueled the conflict, each backing opposing factions to advance their own strategic interests, making peace an increasingly elusive prospect.
Support Pro-Democracy Initiatives and Civil Society: Donors should continue to provide direct funding and logistical support to resistance committees, women, and youth-led initiatives, civil society, and independent media. This support should be flexible, allowing for safe convenings, secure communication, and local organizing.
Beyond Survival Aid to Reconstruction Where Possible: Ensure that aid reaches those in need by working with trusted local individuals and groups and implementing robust monitoring mechanisms to prevent diversion by armed groups. The aid efforts need to move beyond humanitarian assistance and support non-State pro-democracy organizations to lead sustainable food security and reconstruction of basic infrastructure, including local participatory governance systems for accountability. Reconstruction support through pro-democracy actors presents a greater opportunity to empower trusted, nonviolent leadership and reduce dependency on armed actors for survival.
Inclusive Mediation and Political Processes: Any diplomatic process must include a representative cross-section of Sudanese civil society, not just armed actors. Peace built on the exclusion of civilian voices will be inherently unstable.
A Different Future Is Still Possible
Since independence, Sudan has struggled to repair the structural damage left behind by British colonial rule. The legacy of centralized governance and deep social and regional inequalities fueled an unending saga of civil war. For decades, civilians from conflict-ridden regions in Sudan remained excluded, unable to find common ground with those in Khartoum who had never directly experienced war. The outbreak of war in Khartoum in April 2023 shattered this divide. For the first time, the violence reached the heart of the capital, leveling any illusion of distance from Sudan’s longstanding crises. The destruction has erased infrastructure, dismantled governance, and forced millions into displacement. It has taught the nation, painfully and collectively, that no one is immune.
Given the scale of suffering and the betrayal of the Sudanese people by those entrusted to guide the transition, despair among the population is understandable. But hope is not lost. It lives in camps sheltering Sudanese displaced within the country and abroad, as well as in diaspora communities and among those clinging together for survival. Most powerfully, it endures in the underground networks that deliver food, solidarity, and courage amid despair. It lives in the voices of women demanding justice despite the risks. It lives in the chants that continue to echo in the hearts of millions: “Freedom, peace, and justice.”
Sudan’s democratic future is not dead. It is under siege. And it needs allies not just in words, but in action. The world must not look away. It must stand with those who still believe a better Sudan is possible and who are risking everything to make it real.