On Feb. 19 2025, Microsoft unveiled Majorana 1, a quantum chip powered by a new state of matter that the company claims will help create more powerful and less error prone quantum computers. With this discovery, Microsoft declared that quantum computers capable of solving “meaningful, industrial-scale problems” are merely years away. This stunning feat demonstrates that the second quantum revolution is rapidly advancing.
Such progress will likely help scientists tackle some of the world’s most pressing challenges, such as climate change or drug discovery, by simulating highly complex chemical compositions that even the most powerful supercomputers can’t understand. Such modeling would reduce the time and cost of research and could lead to the discovery of new materials, for example, that create more efficient batteries. Yet, such advancements may also pose serious risks to human rights defenders in the near term.
Quantum technologies, specifically quantum computing, have the potential to jeopardize the personal safety of dissidents and activists and supercharge state surveillance apparatuses. While the widespread diffusion of quantum computing systems may still be years, state actors like the People’s Republic of China are already considering how quantum advances could augment their repressive strategies.
China’s 15 billion USD commitment to quantum research far outpaces the second largest investor, the European Union, which has allocated 7.2 billion USD in funding. Given the risks of potential misuse, it is crucial that the broader human rights and democracy community develop an understanding of how quantum computing will change our digital landscape. Such awareness will enable democratic actors to advocate for responsible, rights-respecting tech development and use, and protect their own digital security.
Defining Quantum Computing
Quantum computing leverages the principles of quantum mechanics to solve problems that are too complex for classical computers. Classical computers rely on binary bits represented as zeros or ones. In contrast, quantum computers are built on quantum bits, or “qubits,” that can exist in multiple states simultaneously. This phenomenon, known as superposition, allows quantum computers to perform multiple calculations at once. When multiple qubits work together, a quantum computer’s capacity further increases.
While the compute power of classical computers scales linearly, quantum computers scale exponentially. One common analogy used to illustrate how quantum and classical computers operate differently is that of a maze. To find the correct path, a classical computer would need to try each path one by one. A quantum computer can try multiple paths simultaneously, reducing the amount of time it takes to get to a solution.
Currently, obstacles remain to producing quantum computers, primarily around accuracy, scalability, and resources. A recent survey conducted by McKinsey found that 72 percent of the tech executives, investors, and academics in quantum computing asked believe that fault tolerant quantum computers–which can effectively suppress and mitigate computational errors–will be a reality by 2035. With this in mind, the time to plan for the quantum age is now.
Outlining the Risks: Encryption and Surveillance
In the digital age, democratic actors in closed and partly free settings–such as independent journalists in Russia or human rights activists in Jordan–rely upon secure, private communication channels to conduct their work. Currently, much of our sensitive personal online data and communications are protected by public key encryption algorithms like Rives-Shamir-Adleman (RSA) and Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC). Apps such as WhatsApp rely, at least in part, on these methods to protect users’ privacy because it would take a classical computer millions of years to break such encryption. However, quantum computers would be capable of breaking certain types of public key encryption in a matter of hours, although experts estimate that quantum computers powerful enough to do so are at least a decade away.
Breaking public key encryption risks compromising freedom of expression and the right to privacy, fundamental protections outlined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. If people can no longer be assured that their communications are private, contexts in which activists and other democratic actors operate–spaces that are already shrinking–could constrict further.
While the dangers of encryption-breaking quantum computers may sound like science fiction, risks are already presenting themselves. Chinese researchers recently claimed that they used a quantum computer to break RSA encryption, although the reality is more complicated, given the computer only decrypted a 50-bit integer and today’s standard RSA encryption relies on 2,048-bit integers. It would be like comparing the difficulty of-picking a lock that has 50 dials, versus one that has 2,048. Additionally, governments, including China and Russia, have allegedly begun collecting data and communications in preparation for when quantum computers can break public key encryption. This tactic, known as “harvest now, decrypt later,” means that messages being sent today could be read by governments in ten years, putting present-day communications at risk.
In addition to encryption, quantum computing poses significant surveillance risks. While AI has already supercharged government monitoring by powering “city brains,” which centralize different data flows and identify patterns for law enforcement, and other forms of data fusion (combining disparate datasets for more granular monitoring), quantum’s superior compute power could also help governments optimize and speed up data processing. As Valentin Weber argues in a recent report from the International Forum for Democratic Studies, highly repressive governments in places like Venezuela and China collect more data from their surveillance systems than they are currently able to analyze. Quantum-backed AI surveillance systems would be able to detect and identify “suspicious” behavior–for instance, a large group gathering–faster, more accurately, and across more data.
Quantum-powered surveillance systems pose a significant threat to the public. Governments that can track a person’s every move in real time will be better equipped to restrict freedom of assembly and movement and ensure that people who express dissenting views cannot escape retribution.
This dystopian vision is already a reality in a number of settings, even without quantum. In Russia, authorities used facial recognition technology to identify and subsequently arrest those that attended a peaceful protest in support of Aleksei Navalny. The government has taken similar actions to crack down on anti-war protests since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Integrating quantum computing into surveillance tech will only make these systems more pervasive and granular, potentially eliminating what little anonymity dissidents still have. Chinese companies, the current leaders in the surveillance industry, have begun to experiment with quantum-powered AI monitoring systems. Weber notes that Chinese company Origin Quantum has marketed its technology as aiding with speech and image recognition and processing.
The Time to Prepare for the Quantum Age is Now
Quantum computing is poised to alter the relationship between governments and citizens; however, the nature of this impact is yet to be determined. Given that the development of accurate, scalable quantum computers is believed to be still several years away, civil society has a unique opportunity to prepare for this new reality now.
First, the digital rights community should continue building connections with the companies developing quantum computers. By fostering these relationships, civil society will be better positioned to advocate for the responsible development of quantum computers. For example, digital rights organizations could help develop guardrails around the use of quantum computing for surveillance or military use. These efforts could also shape discussions among the quantum community at international technical standards organizations, which play a significant role in guiding tech development.
Second, digital rights organizations should participate in conversations on how to regulate quantum technologies on the domestic and international levels. The resources and technical expertise necessary to develop quantum computers make it likely that governments and private companies will control these systems for years to come. Given the extreme power imbalance between governments and their people, civil society has an important role in advocating for quantum computing to be leveraged for the public interest in their own national contexts.
On the multilateral level, civil society can engage in ongoing global governance discussions, such as those taking place at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), United Nations (UN) , and World Economic Forum (WEF). Early quantum governance frameworks will likely inform future national-level regulation, so it is essential that civil society provides input for such initiatives, particularly as authoritarian powers increasingly influence international tech governance.
While the digital rights community has limited capacity to engage policymakers and must prioritize more immediate threats to human rights, such as the proliferation of spyware, the risks of quantum computing cannot be put aside. Indeed, the community’s current focus on protecting privacy and limiting the diffusion of surveillance tech will better prepare society for the quantum age, and civil society should leverage these synergies wherever possible.
Finally, civil society must be vigilant about digital security as the quantum age approaches. Those living in autocracies or backsliding democracies settings should transition to secure, quantum-resistant messaging platforms such as Signal. If governments are harvesting data now with the intention of decrypting it later, current communications over apps like WhatsApp are already vulnerable.
The quantum age will usher in a new era of technological advancement, bringing with it challenges to privacy, freedom of expression, and freedom of assembly. To harness quantum computers’ potential to address some of the world’s most pressing challenges, stakeholders must also grapple with the significant risks they pose to democracy and human rights. The time to do so is now.