For the seventh year in a row, the rule of law is declining in a majority of countries, according to the 2024 Rule of Law Index, published today by the World Justice Project (WJP), where we both work.
Since 2016, this global rule of law recession has been characterized by widespread erosion of fundamental rights and checks on executive powers, increased corruption, and weakening justice systems. While the broad trends persist, the 2024 data also show progress on some issues and some countries stepping back from the brink of autocracy. The most notable improvements were in anti-corruption and criminal justice – but even in these areas, gains are fragile. The average improvement in anti-corruption score is only 1.3%, while the average improvement in criminal justice score is just 1.2%.
The Rule of Law Index Methodology
The WJP Rule of Law Index covers 142 countries and jurisdictions and 95% of the world’s population. It draws on surveys of legal practitioners and a representative sample of households to gauge the rule of law across eight dimensions: Constraints on Government Powers, Absence of Corruption, Open Government, Fundamental Rights, Order and Security, Regulatory Enforcement, Civil Justice, and Criminal Justice.
Each factor can be further evaluated according to subfactors. For example, the subfactors for Constraints on Government Powers measure checks on the executive by the legislature, the judiciary, independent audit agencies, civil society, and the media. They also examine whether there is a lawful transition of power and the extent to which officials are held accountable for misconduct. Each country receives a score and ranking on overall rule of law and on each factor and sub-factor.
The Index provides a basis for comparison across countries and regions and for evaluating trends over time. It is widely cited by governments, intergovernmental organizations, private sector investors, and the media.
2024 Key Findings: A Persistent Rule of Law Recession But Some Bright Spots
A majority of countries studied (57%) saw their WJP Rule of Law Index score decline between 2023 and 2024. As in recent years, the key drivers of these declines were factors associated with authoritarianism. The Index measure for Constraints on Government Powers declined in 59% of countries while Fundamental Rights declined in 63% of countries, with discrimination and declines in freedoms of expression, assembly, and privacy particularly prevalent.
While the rule of law recession persists, the data suggest it is slowing. For the third year in a row, we have seen a reduction in the percentage of countries with declining rule of law, as erosion has slowed and even reversed course in some countries.
Countries that saw the greatest improvement in the 2024 WJP Rule of Law Index were Poland, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Brazil. Reversing the negative trends of recent years will take time, however. Despite the one-year gains, the rule of law in each of these top improvers in the 2024 Index remains below 2016 levels.
Architects of the Biden administration’s global anti-corruption strategy will take heart at another bright spot in the 2024 Index data. For the first time in five years, a majority of countries (59%) improved in the Index factor measuring Absence of Corruption. Average gains in these countries were moderate (1.4%) but persisted across all corruption subfactors measured in the Index.
Finally, the data suggest that efforts to strengthen justice systems globally may be beginning to pay off. After widespread declines in both civil and criminal justice in 2023, this year’s Index shows a majority (54%) of countries improving on the Index factor measuring Criminal Justice. While 56% of countries saw declines in civil justice this year, this was far less than last year when civil justice declined in 66% of countries. Access to and affordability of civil justice actually improved in a majority of countries between 2023 and 2024, but justice delays and weak enforcement worsened.
“Year of the Election” Poses Rule of Law Test, Including in the United States
Democratic elections ushering in reform-minded leaders have been a key factor driving progress in a number of countries. Poland and Brazil provide notable examples. The unprecedented number of elections being held in 2024 offer opportunities for similar rule of law progress.
Unfortunately, however, the ability of countries to harness elections for change has been weakened in recent years. Since 2016, 72% of countries have seen an average decline of 11.6% in the Index measure of Lawful Transition of Power. In 2024 elections so far, the ruling party has maintained power in 13 out of 15 countries with below average scores on this Index metric.
The rule of law test posed by elections is top of mind in the United States as voters head to the polls in two weeks. The WJP Index data provides ample cause for concern. The United States has seen its rule of law score decline every year but one since 2016, and this year is no exception, down 0.6% since 2023, with a ranking of 26th globally. Overall, since 2016, the United States’ Index score is down 5.7%, with declines in all but two of the Index factors and a particularly abysmal 17.6% decline in the Index measure for Constraints on Government Powers. The United States has seen a 12.4% drop in its Index score for Lawful Transition of Power since 2016, with a middling rank of 43rd on that metric.
As part of WJP’s 2024 Index data collection in the United States, we ran an extended poll of Americans about the electoral process. The results, published in a recent report – U.S. Rule of Law Trends and the 2024 Election, revealed deep skepticism toward the electoral process and partisan divides about the nature of the problem.
One-third of Americans, including 46% of Republicans and 27% of Democrats, said they would accept the outcome of the presidential election as legitimate only if their candidate wins. Concerns about the electoral process vary by party, with Republicans having greater concerns about fraud while Democrats fear violations of voting rights.
Trust in the courts’ role in elections breaks down along partisan lines too. Democrats have greater confidence in lower courts to resolve election disputes than Republicans have, but when it comes to the Supreme Court, 67% of Republicans say they trust the court to resolve election disputes, as compared to 47% of Democrats.
The data highlight the risk of civil unrest and a break-down in the rule of law in the context of the upcoming U.S. elections. Regardless of who wins the election, a significant minority of voters will be disappointed and distrust the results. Fourteen percent of Republicans and 11% of Democrats surveyed in the WJP poll said they would “take action” to overturn the election if their candidate did not win.
On one point, Democrats and Republicans are unified. Asked whether the rule of law is important to the future of the United States, 96% of both political parties agree, a much higher percentage than we have found when asking that question in other advanced democracies. Unfortunately, when asked what word they associate with the state of the rule of law in the United States today, the most common answer was “corrupt.”
The upcoming U.S. election presents a critical opportunity for election officials, the courts, the media, public- and private-sector leaders, and ordinary citizens across the country to ensure a peaceful, law-bound process and prove that assessment wrong.