Heat Map of January 6th Defendants Across the United States

The graphic below is a “Heat Map” of the United States displaying the hometown origins of all the defendants charged for federal crimes allegedly committed in connection with the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol (identified by general location and not by name). The map reflects the work of the largest criminal investigation in U.S. history. It shows the sprawling network of actors who participated, to different degrees, in an event that the Justice Department and FBI define as an act of domestic terrorism. A list of the most common federal offenses charged in the January 6th cases is provided below.

The Heat Map can be toggled to show either (a) all of the approximately 1,500 defendants or (b) only the 100 defendants who are leaders, members or associates of the Proud Boys, the militia group with the most specific premeditated plan to attack the Capitol. We hope this information will be valuable to scholars, journalists, policymakers, and the general public.

Users of the Heat Map may derive some direct lessons from the information provided, or use it as a building block along with other information in making assessments. In a separate essay, Tom Joscelyn relies on the Heat Map along with other research to assess the Proud Boys’ organizational structure, plans for January 6th, and future threats. Notably, previous academic research has used a dataset of home counties of individuals charged for January 6th-related crimes to try to explain the sociopolitical causes of the attack on the Capitol.

In my view, three insights can be gleaned from the Heat Map’s information about the total population of January 6th defendants. I describe those three insights below the map, as well as some caveats about use of the data.

Heat Map

We are grateful to the exceptional team at NPR for their detailed database of January 6th Capitol riot cases, from which we drew the data. All errors are our own.

Heat Map Lesson 1. Mass mobilization of political violence and law-breaking

The Heat Map shows the ability to spur political violence and law-breaking from across the United States. As a general matter, one of the difficulties in models that try to predict political violence is that a sudden catalyst can rapidly produce dangerous outcomes. The Heat Map provides evidence of how and to what extent that occurred in the United States, especially in the 18-day period between Dec. 19, 2020 and Jan. 6, 2021.

The Office of the Presidency has an enormous potential to shape popular imaginations and be that catalyst. Having seen how Winston Churchill and Adolf Hitler used the modern radio to speak directly to a mass audience, Justice Robert Jackson expressed concerns about the power of the U.S. president over public opinion. In his famous concurrence in Youngstown Sheet v. Sawyer, Jackson wrote, “No other personality in public life can begin to compete with him in access to the public mind through modern methods of communications. By his prestige as head of state and his influence upon public opinion, he exerts a leverage upon those who are supposed to check and balance his power which often cancels their effectiveness.” Today, social media is yet another method of mass communication capable of producing similar results.

At 1:42 AM on Saturday, Dec. 19, 2020, Trump sent out his “Be there, will be wild!” tweet that focused the attention of his most violent supporters on the date of January 6th and the location of the nation’s capital. As Justin Hendrix and I have documented, the effect of Trump’s signal was observable on thedonald[.]win, a right-wing fringe online messaging board. Collecting many specific examples, we wrote:

The sharing of specific techniques, tactics, and procedures for the assault on the Capitol started on The Donald in earnest on December 19, 2020, the day Trump tweeted “Big protest in D.C. on January 6th … Be there, will be wild!” The ensuing weeks of communications on the site included information on how to use a flagpole as a weapon, how to smuggle firearms into DC, measurements for a guillotine, and maps of the tunnel systems under the Capitol building.

(Our analysis is cited in the House Select Committee’s final report.) The Washington Post’s Philip Bump has also documented the frequency with which the date of Dec. 19th is referenced in court documents involving Jan. 6 defendants.

The Heat Map along with communications by Jan. 6 defendants show the surge in nation-wide mobilization. The following ten examples, taken in significant part from the House Select Committee’s final report (see the Executive Summary, as well as Chapters 6 and 8) and DOJ filings, indicate how quickly Trump mobilized violent supporters following his Dec. 19, 2020 tweet.

1. Dec. 19, 2020: Matthew Greene (Syracuse, New York) (pleaded guilty to conspiracy and obstruction of an official proceeding)

“On December 19, 2021[sic], when Greene saw then-President Donald Trump’s tweet referencing a ‘wild’ protest to take place on January 6, 2021, he decided that he would attend the event, and he booked a hotel in Washington, D.C. for January 5-7, 2021.” (plea agreement, para. 3)

2. Dec. 19, 2020: Kelly O’Brien (North Whitehall, Pennsylvania) (pleaded guilty to entering and remaining in a restricted building)

O’Brien posted on Facebook: “CALLING ALL PATRIOTS! Be in Washington, D.C. January 6th. This wasn’t organized by any group. DJT has invited us and it’s going to be ‘wild.'” (DOJ Statement of Offense, para. 9)

3. Dec. 19, 2020: Three Percenters, Alan Hostetter (San Clemente, California) (sentenced to 135 months of incarceration; convicted of conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of an official proceeding and aiding and abetting, entering and remaining in a restricted building and grounds with a deadly or dangerous weapon, and disorderly and disruptive conduct in a restricted building or grounds with a deadly or dangerous weapon) and Russell Taylor (Ladera Ranch, California) (pleaded guilty to conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding)

“On December 19, 2020, TAYLOR posted to HOSTETTER’s Telegram chat a link to a Tweet that President Trump posted on Twitter earlier that day… Alongside the link, TAYLOR posted the message, ‘Who is going.’”

“On December 19, 2020, HOSTETTER posted from his “americanphoenixproject” Instagram account explaining the reasons to travel to D.C. for January 6, 2021:

‘Late last night President Trump tweeted that all patriots should descend on Washington DC on Wednesday 1/6/2021. This is the date of the Joint Session of Congress in which they will either accept or reject the fake/phony/stolen electoral college votes. I will be there, bullhorns on fire, to let the swamp dwellers know we will not let them steal our country from us. I hope you can join me!! #fightfortrump #stopthesteal #savetherepublic’

“On December 19, 2020, HOSTETTER and TAYLOR reserved rooms at the Kimpton George Hotel in Washington, D.C. (the “Kimpton”) for January 6, 2021….”
(Indictment, paras 25-27))

4. Dec. 21, 2020, Oath Keeper Joshua James (Arab, Alabama) (pleaded guilty to seditious conspiracy and obstruction of an official proceeding)

James sent a message to other Oath Keepers in an encrypted Signal group titled, “Leadership intel sharing secured.” James stated, “SE region is creating a NATIONAL CALL TO ACTION FOR DC JAN 6TH. . . . 4 states are mobilizing.” (Indictment)

5. Dec. 22, 2020, Oath Keeper Kelly Meggs (Dunnellon, Florida) (sentenced to 12 years of incarceration after being convicted of seditious conspiracy, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of an official proceeding, conspiracy to prevent an officer from discharging duties, and tampering with documents or proceedings)

Meggs sent a Facebook message to another person:

Trump said It’s gonna be wild!!!!!!! It’s gonna be wild!!!!!!! He wants us to make it WILD that’s what he’s saying. He called us all to the Capitol and wants us to make it wild!!! Sir Yes Sir!!! Gentlemen we are heading to DC pack your shit!!” (Fourth superseding indictment)

6. Dec. 22, 2020: Charles Bradford Smith (Shippensburg, Pennsylvania) (sentenced to 41 months of incarceration and three years of supervised release for assaulting law enforcement officers and conspiring to obstruct an official proceeding) and Marshall Neefe (Newville, Pennsylvania) (sentenced to 41 months of incarceration and three years of supervised release for assaulting law enforcement officers and conspiring to obstruct an official proceeding)

Smith had the following exchange with another January 6th defendant over Facebook on Dec. 22, 2020:

SMITH: The call to action was put out to be in DC on January 6th from the Don himself. The reason is that’s the day pence counts them up and if the entire city is full of trump supporters it will stop the for sure riots from burning down the city at least for a while.

NEEFE: We goin? . . . Cause hot damn son i really wanna crack some commie skulls.

SMITH: Yeah I”m going 100%. This is way more important than the last one actually. This one’s literally to save the city from chaos while they do their thing in the capital (Indictment)

In another Facebook message that day, Smith wrote, “Trump is asking everyone to go” on the 6th. “It’s the only time hes[sic] ever specifically asked for people to show up.” (Indictment)

7. Dec. 23, 2020: Oath Keeper Stewart Rhodes (Granbury, Texas) (sentenced to 18 years of incarceration for seditious conspiracy and other charges)

Rhodes posted an open letter on the Oath Keepers website stating:

“[T]ens of thousands of patriot Americans, both veterans and non-veterans, will already be in Washington D.C., and many of us will have our mission-critical gear stowed nearby just outside D.C.” “If you fail to do your duty, you will leave We the People no choice but to walk in the Founders footsteps … And, like the Founding generation, we will take to arms in defense of our God given liberty.”

8. Dec. 23, 2020: Derek Sulenta (Long Beach, California) (pleaded guilty to the charge of parading, demonstrating or picketing in a Capitol building)

Sulenta posted to Facebook: “I’ll be there Jan 6th to support the president no matter what happens” and “That’s the day he called for patriots to show up.” (DOJ Statement of Facts, at p. 3)

9. Dec. 23, 2020: Kenneth Grayson (Bridgeville, Pennsylvania) (pleaded guilty to interfering with a law enforcement officer during a civil disorder).

“GRAYSON also communicated with several family members and associates regarding his travel plans and intentions for being at the U.S. Capitol on or about January 6, 2021, including the following: ‘…IM THERE IF TRUMP TELLS US TO STORM THE FUKIN CAPITAL IMA DO THAT THEN!’” (DOJ Statement of Facts, p. 8; Statement of Offense, para. 8)

10. Dec. 31, 2020: Robert Morss (Glenshaw, Pennsylvania) (sentenced to 66 months of incarceration, 24 months of supervised release for robbery, assaulting, resisting or impeding certain officers, and obstruction of an official proceeding)

“On December 31,2020, defendant Morss texted an individual that he was ‘excited for the 6th.’ When that individual asked ‘What’s the 6th?”, defendant Morss sent screen capture of a Tweet with an image of the text: ‘America Will Not Be “Reset” America Will Be Reborn” and ‘1776 Will Commence Again January 6th,2021, Washington, D.C.’ and a picture of former President Trump next to the words ‘Be there, Will be Wild.’ Defendant Morss followed up this image with the text to that individual, ‘lT’S GOING DOWWWWWWN!!!!!’” (Statement of Facts for Stipulated Files, at p. 7)

Trump’s call to arms on Twitter was interpreted as exactly that.

Many posted online that they were ready to die for Trump’s lie and wondered whether the police were willing to die defending Congress and the Vice President against Trump’s mob. pic.twitter.com/OpZa7Hzdkl

— January 6th Committee (@January6thCmte) July 13, 2022

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Of course, Trump was not alone in mobilizing these forces. Within hours of his tweet, far-right media personalities – including InfoWars host Alex Jones (see the House Select Committee’s description of Jones’s Proud Boys connections) and YouTube personality Tim Pool (see Pool’s denial of pre-Jan. 6 statements; and for further context, the 2024 federal indictment of Russian government actors’ indirect funding) – took to their channels to promote Trump’s call for descending on Washington, DC on Jan. 6.

As a House Select Committee video shows, one right-wing media personality stated, “It’s going to be a red wedding going down January 6th,” a reference to a violent, mass slaughter. Another (InfoWars guest host Matt Bracken) said, “We are going to only be saved by millions of Americans moving to Washington, occupying the entire area, if necessary, storming right into the Capitol.” Over the following weeks, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Oh) took to right-wing and far right-wing media as well as his own social media accounts to spread disinformation about the reliability of the election results. Pointing his audience toward Jan. 6 as the mark, Jordan repeatedly described it as “the ultimate date of significance.”

Then, on Jan. 5, Steve Bannon (Trump’s 2016 campaign manager) helped ignite the fire for those who had come to DC. After speaking with Trump that morning, Bannon took to his popular podcast saying, “All hell is going to break loose tomorrow. Just understand this: All hell is going to break loose tomorrow. It’s going to be moving, it’s going to be quick … It’s the fog of war.” Bannon continued, “It’s not going to happen like you think it’s going to happen. OK, it’s going to be quite extraordinarily different, and all I can say is, strap in.”

Heat Map Lesson 2. Coming to a hometown near you

The Heat Map shows the hometowns and geographic centers likely to be most directly affected by a release of January 6th defendants under a Trump pardon, as the former president has promised to do if re-elected. Not all points on the map, however, count in that regard. Many January 6th defendants have already served their sentences, especially if they were convicted or pleaded guilty for more minor offenses. Others were not incarcerated at all.

At a certain point, most of the January 6th defendants will complete their sentences in any case, and may well return to their hometowns or neighboring areas. But those releases will occur on a staggered basis and after each individual has paid their debt to society. Their criminal records will also stay with them, rather than being expunged.

In terms of the sociopolitical impact, a presidential pardon is an entirely different proposition than that baseline status quo. As a policy matter, a general pardon would instantly release a wave of individuals in a triumphalist spirit with the powerful backing of the Office of the President of the United States. That has potential implications for the hometowns of these individuals – effects that may be even more pronounced in smaller population centers where the effects of such a “catch and release” program will be less diluted. A simultaneous release may also facilitate some of the released individuals’ renewing violent extremist network ties rather than seeking rehabilitation.

Heat Map Lesson 3. The local and national socio-political effects of presidential pardons

A presidential pardon of January 6th defendants could also have more general implications in legitimizing and encouraging political violence. In his separate essay, Joscelyn describes the stimulation that presidential pardons could specifically provide to rightwing extremists groups like the Proud Boys. The Heat Map shows the national spread of such a signal more generally, where local newspapers have been tracking arrests, releases, and other developments in the cases of January 6th defendants from their areas. Presidential pardons would be a salient event covered nationally and locally, amplifying their social effects.

Caveats: What Statistics Can’t Tell Us

Academic research on the individuals who stormed the Capitol suffers from several constraints. One of the most significant is the underinclusive nature of using data derived from individuals charged by the Department of Justice. “More than 2,000 [individuals] gained access to the interior of the Capitol building” on January 6th (see the House Select Committee final report, p. 73), and the Department of Justice has charged approximately 1,532 individuals for January 6th-related offenses. In other words, a quarter or more of the 2,000 individuals are potentially missing.

There may also be systematic bias in which individuals have or have not been charged such as: individuals with a greater presence on social media being more easily discovered, individuals who wore masks and other face coverings on January 6th being less easily identified, individuals who committed violent crimes being prioritized by federal investigators and prosecutors. In addition, “approximately 10,000 people came onto Capitol grounds, with many engaging in violent clashes with officers trying to protect the building and lawmakers inside,” as ABC News reported. That makes the 1,532 charged individuals potentially even less representative of the whole, depending on what one considers the whole and for what purpose.

Most Common Federal Offenses Charged in January 6th Capitol Riot Cases