Editor’s note: Readers may also be interested in an introduction and accompanying analysis: Ryan Goodman, Heat Map of January 6th Defendants Across the United States

In the nearly four years since the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, the Department of Justice has charged over 1,500 defendants with crimes associated with the events of that day. It is the largest investigation in federal law enforcement history – and it is ongoing. New details are still being uncovered, often with the help of online sleuths, and additional defendants are charged each month.

The January 6th attack is often referred to as a riot and, in a sense, that is partly true.” Many of the rioters who illegally trespassed on the Capitol’s grounds had no intention of sacking the citadel of American democracy until being riled up that day. At the same time, the attack was not spontaneous. Far-right extremists plotted to storm the Capitol in the weeks prior to the congressional certification. It is for that reason that the January 6th attack is perhaps best understood as a planned or organized riot.

No rightwing extremist group played a bigger role in orchestrating the January 6th attack than the Proud Boys. The organization increasingly garnered headlines throughout 2020, especially after then President Donald Trump told its men to “stand back and stand by” during a presidential debate. The Proud Boys were widely viewed at the time as street thugs, heavy drinkers looking for a brawl. They were underestimated. In the two and half weeks following Dec. 19, 2020 – when Trump announced via Twitter that there would be a “Big protest in D.C. on January 6th,” adding “Be there, will be wild!” – the Proud Boys successfully planned to halt the peaceful transfer of power for the first time in American history.

The Proud Boys were not the only rightwing extremists who attacked the U.S. Capitol. Members of other anti-government militias (such as the Oath Keepers and Three Percenters), white nationalists (including the “Groypers”), and conspiracists (including QAnon adherents), were among the rioters who stormed the building. (Indeed, the Proud Boys cooperated with these far-right extremists and others as part of the “Stop the Steal” movement in late 2020. The Proud Boys’ own beliefs include a mix of white supremacy, xenophobia, anti-government extremism, conspiracism, and anti-Semitism, as well as misogyny and homophobic bigotry.) 

But the Proud Boys, more than any other organized extremist group, planned ahead and led the charge. 

The Proud Boys’ unique responsibility for instigating the January 6th riot has been well-documented, including by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the House Select Committee on the January 6th Attack (see Chapters 6 and 8 of the committee’s final report), and the Department of Justice. (Disclaimer: I served as a senior professional staff member for the select committee and was a principal author of the committee’s final report.) 

Specifically, positioned just outside the Capitol grounds, the Proud Boys incited the riot right before the joint session of Congress was set to begin at 1 p.m., led the charge at every major breach point of the Capitol building, and battled law enforcement throughout the attack. The group’s leadership likely knew that they did not have enough men to overrun the Capitol themselves, so they planned to rile up the so-called “normies” or “normiecons” — that is, thousands of Trump supporters — on January 6th.   

Despite all the evidence fingering the Proud Boys as the main, on-the-ground culprit, misinformation and disinformation about January 6th persists. As the Proud Boys’ senior leadership stood trial in 2023, for example, the defense claimed that there was “no objective” or plan for Jan. 6 – implying that the coordinated assault on the Capitol was spontaneous. The jury did not buy this argument, convicting four senior Proud Boys of seditious conspiracy and other serious charges. Nevertheless, millions of Americans believe that non-existent “deep state” provocateurs were responsible for instigating the riot – and not the Proud Boys. Many Americans were led astray by a Reuters report in August 2021, “Exclusive: FBI finds scant evidence U.S. Capitol attack was coordinated – sources,” which reported – improvidently – that the DOJ had “steered clear of more serious, politically-loaded charges that the sources said had been initially discussed by prosecutors, such as seditious conspiracy.”  

To combat the prevalence of such disinformation and misinformation, this article relies on hundreds of court filings and related statements from the Proud Boys’ January 6th cases. The result of that analysis is below.

Section I summarizes the evidence showing that the Proud Boys specifically planned to “storm the Capitol” on January 6th. Even though the group’s leaders and members tried to cover their tracks after the attack, they left a trail of incriminating evidence. Therefore, the summary in these first three sections is based largely on the Proud Boys’ own words, including signed admissions of guilt.

Section II includes an analysis of the charges against 100 Proud Boy members, leaders, and their associates. This analysis shows that more than 70 percent of these January 6th defendants have been charged with one or more felonies, and more than half of them have already been convicted.

Section III presents a map of the hometowns for each of these 100 January 6th defendants. The map is not just for show – it underscores a key analytic point: The Proud Boys relied on personnel from around the country on January 6th. These defendants included not only members of the group, but also the leadership of various Proud Boy chapters. This analysis demonstrates the Proud Boys utilized a national network, with a hierarchical chain-of-command, to execute the attack on the Capitol.    

Finally, this analysis is not just backward looking. Section IV briefly assesses the future of the Proud Boys. Despite the post-January 6th arrests and convictions, the group has survived — and evolved. Though it is widely assumed that the Proud Boys lack a coherent national leadership today, law enforcement agencies should not underestimate the group’s capabilities. It is possible that new leaders have already emerged to succeed their imprisoned comrades. It is also possible that the Proud Boys’ January 6th leadership will receive a presidential pardon, allowing them to return to the fold as heroes. In that event, they would inherit a national network of Proud Boy chapters – not all that dissimilar from the organization that existed on January 6, 2021.

An infographic depicting how many Proud Boys have been convicted and charged in the Jan 6 Attack trials out of 100.

 

I. The Proud Boys’ Responsibility for January 6th

A. Enrique Tarrio, Chairman of the Proud Boys: “Make no mistake…We did this…”

 After the Proud Boys had entered the Capitol, at 2:36 p.m. on Jan. 6, 2021, Enrique Tarrio, the “chairman” and overall leader of the Proud Boys, wrote on Parler (a now defunct social media site) that he was “enjoying the show.” 

Tarrio was thrilled, writing: “Do what must be done” and “#WeThePeople.” Two minutes later, Tarrio insisted: “Don’t fucking leave.”

 Then, at approximately 2:39 p.m., one of Tarrio’s fellow Proud Boys privately messaged him: “Are we a militia yet?” Tarrio replied, “Yep.” Tarrio then added: “Make no mistake …We did this.”

At 2:41 p.m., Tarrio posted again on Parler: “Proud of My Boys and my country.” Less than two hours earlier, just before 1 p.m., his men had instigated the attack on the U.S. Capitol, leading hundreds of rioters onto the building’s restricted grounds. And less than half an hour prior to Tarrio’s boastful posts, at 2:13 p.m., a Proud Boy smashed in a Senate Wing window – the first breach of the Capitol building. Hundreds of people were streaming into the Capitol as Tarrio claimed credit.

On Jan. 6, 2021, Tarrio was proud of what he and his men had accomplished. That night, in fact, Tarrio posted an incriminating, 18-second video on Parler titled, “Premonition.” The brief clip showed a masked man, presumably Tarrio, triumphantly posing in front of the Capitol building. The video was recorded prior to the events of that day, indicating that Tarrio had foreknowledge of what was to come.

In May 2023, a federal jury in Washington D.C. convicted Tarrio and three other Proud Boy leaders – Biggs, Ethan Nordean, and Zachary Rehl – of seditious conspiracy and other charges. A fifth Proud Boy, Dominic Pezzola, was acquitted of seditious conspiracy but convicted of other felonies, including obstruction of an official proceeding and conspiracy to prevent members of Congress or federal officers from discharging their duties. All five men have since been sentenced to lengthy terms in prison, with Tarrio receiving the longest sentence (22 years), followed by Nordean (18 years), Biggs (17 years), Rehl (15 years), and Pezzola (10 years).  

 These men were key figures in the January 6th attack. They began conspiring shortly after then-President Trump announced, via Twitter on Dec. 19, 2020, that there would be a protest on Jan. 6, 2021. Trump tweeted: “Be there, will be wild!” The Proud Boys made it wild. According to the Department of Justice, the four convicted Proud Boy leaders specifically “conspired to prevent, hinder and delay the certification of the Electoral College vote, and to oppose by force the authority of the government of the United States.” Then, on Jan. 6, the group’s leaders “directed, mobilized, and led a group of Proud Boys and other members of the crowd onto the Capitol grounds.” They “played a central role in setting the January 6th attack on our Capitol into motion.” The evidence – including a video investigation by the Wall Street Journal – demonstrates this is precisely what the group set out to accomplish. 

Tarrio’s public and private messages, as well as his “Premonition” video, are not the only statements demonstrating the Proud Boys’ intent and planning.

In Dec. 2021, Matthew Greene, a low-level Proud Boy from New York, pleaded guilty to one conspiracy count, as well as obstruction of an official proceeding. Greene’s plea was a major step forward in the federal investigation. In his signed statement of offense, Greene admitted that he conspired with other Proud Boys “to unlawfully enter the Capitol grounds by overwhelming police defenses, for the purpose of interfering with the certification of the Electoral College Vote taking place inside the Capitol building.” Greene and others wanted “to send a message to legislators and Vice President Pence,” as Greene “believed that he and his co-conspirators were trying to obstruct, influence and impede an official proceeding … specifically, Congress’s certification of the Electoral College.”

Greene’s statement of offense was limited to his participation in a conspiracy to illegally enter the U.S. Capitol’s grounds. But additional evidence, including in the federal indictment of the senior Proud Boys leadership, as well as in multiple other court filings, shows the group planned to overrun the Capitol building itself. Much of their planning occurred on encrypted Telegram group chats.

B. Tarrio: “…you want to storm the Capitol”

In Dec. 2020, Tarrio established a new leadership hierarchy, which he named the “Ministry of Self Defense” (or MOSD). Tarrio created the MOSD after one of his close confidantes, Jeremy Bertino, was stabbed during a street altercation in Washington, D.C. Although the MOSD was ostensibly intended to help defend the Proud Boys, it quickly became a central hub for the group’s offensive planning. Tarrio and other Proud Boy leaders created and managed Telegram group chats named after the MOSD, as well as related chats, such as one titled, “Boots on the Ground,” which was used to communicate orders to the rank-and-file. Despite the Proud Boys’ efforts to delete these chats after they stormed the Capitol, federal investigators uncovered multiple incriminating messages.

*On Dec. 30, 2020, Tarrio received a curious document titled, “1776 Returns.” While the document did not include plans for storming the Capitol building itself, it did suggest that a small group of leaders could “fill” House and Senate office buildings with “patriots” and “occupy” them until a new election was held. The first part of the plan was titled, “Storm the Winter Palace,” a reference to the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution, during which (according to a dramatic reenactment) Vladimir Lenin ordered his Bolshevik revolutionaries to occupy the seat of the provisional government. Though the Proud Boys did not adopt the plans outlined in “1776 Returns” as their own, they did ultimately harness the power of the “patriots” (that is, the “normies”) to overrun the Capitol building. 

On Jan. 3, 2021, a member of the MOSD asked in a group chat, “what would they do [if] 1 million patriots stormed and took the capital building. Shoot the crowd?” A Proud Boy figure, who has been identified as John Charles Stewart, allegedly responded: “They would do nothing because they can do nothing.”

That same day, Stewart sent a voice note to others on the MOSD leadership chat, saying “the main operating theater should be out in front of the Capitol building,” because that is “where the vote is taking place and all of the objections.” Stewart stressed that they should “plan the operations around the front entrance to the Capitol building.” Rehl, a Proud Boy leader, replied, saying the Capitol was a “good start.” 

On Jan. 4, Tarrio responded with his own voice note on the MOSD leaders’ chat: 

“I didn’t hear this voice note until now, you want to storm the Capitol.”

At least two senior Proud Boys have admitted that the group used these Telegram chats, from at least Jan. 4 on, to discuss plans for storming the Capitol. One of them is Charles Donohue, the leader of a Proud Boys’ chapter in North Carolina. Donohoe, who joined the MOSD, directly participated in the attack on the Capitol. The other is Bertino, who was recovering from stab wounds on Jan. 6 and, therefore, could not directly take part in the assault. However, Bertino admitted he continued to conspire with his fellow Proud Boys via Telegram. In Apr. 2022, Donohoe pleaded guilty to conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding and assaulting, resisting or impeding officers. In Oct. 2022, Bertino pleaded guilty to seditious conspiracy.

At least as early as January 4, 2021,” according to Donohoe’s signed statement of offense, he was “aware that members of MOSD leadership were discussing the possibility of storming the Capitol.” Donohoe “believed that storming the Capitol would achieve the group’s goal of stopping the government from carrying out the transfer of presidential power,” and he “understood that storming the Capitol would be illegal.”

 “As early as January 4, 2021,” Bertino’s signed statement of offense reads, he “received encrypted chat messages indicating that members of MOSD leadership were discussing the possibility of storming the Capitol.” Bertino “believed that storming the Capitol would achieve the group’s goal of stopping Congress from certifying the Electoral College Vote” and “understood that the MOSD leaders were prepared to direct and use force to stop the Electoral College proceeding.”

On the evening of Jan. 5, 2021, another Proud Boy leader, Joseph Biggs, messaged one of the MOSD membership chats. “We just had a meeting woth[sic] a lot of guys. Info should be coming out,” Biggs explained. “Just spoke with Enrique [Tarrio],” Biggs added. Minutes later, Biggs told the members, “We have a plan. I’m with rufio.” (Rufio is an alias for Ethan Nordean.)

“What’s the plan so I can pass it to the MOSD guys,” Donohoe asked.

“I gave Enrique [Tarrio] a plan. The one I told the guys and he said he had one,” Biggs replied.

According to his statement of offense, Donohoe “understood from these discussions that a tactical plan for January 6, 2021, was being discussed at least among Tarrio, Nordean, and Biggs.” Neither Donohoe nor Bertino were “given details of the plan referred to by Biggs,” but both “understood from discussions among the MOSD and other Proud Boys that the objective in Washington, D.C., on January 6, 2021, was to obstruct, impede, or interfere with the certification of the Electoral College vote.” Both Donohoe and Bertino “understood from discussions that the group would pursue this through the use of force and violence.” And Bertino knew the plan “could include storming the Capitol through police lines and barricades if necessary.”

On Jan. 4, Tarrio was arrested and charged with vandalizing a historic Black church, as well as two felony counts stemming from his possession of high-capacity gun magazines. A federal judge then banned Tarrio from Washington, D.C. Although Tarrio was banished from the nation’s capital, he retained a commanding hand.

Just after midnight on Jan. 6, Tarrio posted a message on a MOSD leader chat. Shortly after, Donohoe responded: “Standby.” Donohoe then “reposted” instructions on the “Boots on the Ground” chat, as well as on an MOSD members group chat, telling the Proud Boys’ rank-and-file to rendezvous at the Washington Monument at 10 a.m. that morning.

C. The March of the Proud Boys and the Storming of the U.S. Capitol

Approximately 100 Proud Boys and their associates met up at the Washington Monument later that morning – just as they had been commanded. One of the Proud Boys who joined this group, Daniel Scott, also known as “Milkshake,” was caught on camera shouting, “Let’s take the fucking Capitol!” Another Proud Boy quickly admonished Scott for blurting their plans out loud, telling him, “Let’s not f—ing yell that, okay?” Nordean replied, “It was Milkshake, man, you know … idiot!”

Biggs and Nordean led the march from the Washington Monument around the U.S. Capitol. By the time they ended their march, coalescing at the Peace Circle, a strategic location just outside of the Capitol’s grounds, their ranks had mushroomed to between 200 and 300 people. Not all these people were Proud Boys; some were associates who joined the group along the way.

Once at the Peace Circle, Biggs and others riled up the crowd – turning the mob against the thin line of U.S. Capitol Police (USCP) officers standing guard. Biggs, shouting through his megaphone, led the mob in chants such as: “Whose Capitol? Our Capitol!” and “Whose house? Our house!” At 12:53 p.m. Ryan Samsel, a rioter who was pictured with his arm around Biggs, approached the officers. Samsel claims Biggs encouraged him to confront the officers, an allegation that Biggs has denied. Either way, Samsel sparked a melee, which is well documented in video recordings. The assembled mob quickly trampled the few officers standing in their way.   

The Proud Boys and others cleared away the makeshift security fences that had been positioned outside the Capitol. 

The Peace Circle sits at the end of Pennsylvania Avenue. And when then President Trump told thousands of his supporters to march to the Capitol, he told them to use that same famous street. By sweeping security aside, the Proud Boys and their associates made a path for thousands of Trump supporters to make their way onto the Capitol’s grounds. It bore the hallmarks of coordination, as we documented in the Select Committee final report (Chapter 8).

The Capitol building itself was breached at 2:13 p.m. after Pezzola used a stolen riot shield to smash in a Senate Wing window. Rioters then opened an adjacent door, allowing other rioters to stream into the Capitol building. Throughout the attack, the Proud Boys assaulted the police (often on the front lines), encouraged other rioters, and obstructed law enforcement officers as the officers attempted to gain control of the crowd. The Proud Boys were not simply “a part of every critical breach” around the Capitol building, as prosecutors have explained, but also led the charge at these breach points.

The Proud Boys crowed about their accomplishment. In a video recorded on the grounds of the Capitol, Biggs declared, “we’ve just taken the Capitol.” In another, while standing alongside Nordean, Biggs said, “So we just stormed the fucking Capitol. Took the motherfucking place back. That was so much fun.” Biggs emphasized, “January 6 will be a day infamy.”

As he walked through the Capitol’s halls, Pezzola smoked a victory cigar and recorded a video of himself saying, “I knew we could take this motherfucker over if we just tried hard enough.” Pezzola repeated the group’s motto: “Proud of your motherfuckin’ boy.” Rehl told his mother he was “so fucking proud” of the “raid of the capitol.”  

On the evening of Jan. 6, Bertino messaged Tarrio: “Brother. You know we made this happen.” “1776 motherfucker.” “Dude. Did we just influence history?” In one of his replies, Tarrio seemingly referenced the concept included in the “1776 Returns” document, writing: “Winter Palace.” 

As Bertino later admitted, his messages with Tarrio reflected the Proud Boys’ role inspiring “normies” to storm the Capitol building. “I believed that we were supposed to be the leaders of the country, of the right wing,” Bertino testified during the Proud Boys’ seditious conspiracy trial. “The tip of the spear.” Bertino added: “If the Proud Boys are the tip of the spear, then we’d be looking at the normies as the people behind us.”

The record is filled with additional incriminating evidence. But the evidence cited above demonstrates that the Proud Boys plotted to storm the U.S. Capitol on January 6th. 

II. Charged Proud Boys and Their Associates

We have identified 100 Proud Boy leaders, members and associates who have been charged with committing crimes related to the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Seventy-three (73) of these Jan. 6 defendants have been charged with one or more felonies. Fifty-three (53) of the defendants have been convicted of at least one felony, while the felony cases are pending for 20 others. 

The felony convictions include a range of crimes, including seditious conspiracy and assaulting law enforcement. Five (5) Proud Boy leaders have been convicted of seditious conspiracy. Twenty-four (24) leaders, members and associates of the group have been convicted of assaulting law enforcement officers. Eleven (11) additional defendants have been charged with assaulting law enforcement and their cases are pending.  

Our list is not comprehensive – that is, it does not include every Proud Boy who took part in the group’s Jan. 6 operation. First, we may have mistakenly failed to identify some charged members or associates of the group. Second, some of the Proud Boys who reportedly played a role on Jan. 6 have not been charged. The DOJ has also declined to prosecute hundreds of rioters who illegally entered the Capitol’s restricted grounds, but did not enter the Capitol building itself or commit a violent act. Some of the Proud Boys and their close associates may be among those cases.

Third, the investigation is still ongoing and additional Proud Boys may be charged in the coming months. For instance, some Proud Boys were charged just this year – more than three years after the attack – raising the possibility that additional indictments could be forthcoming. 

Fourth, some Proud Boys may have been charged but are not identified as members or associates of the group in the DOJ’s court filings. The DOJ is inconsistent in its identification of the Proud Boys, meaning that some of the group’s men may not be identified as such in court documents or other publicly available information.

Fifth, the Proud Boys may have successfully hidden the identity of some of their members. In the days leading up to Jan. 6, leaders of the group ordered their members to go “incognito,” a tactical move that was intended to obscure the group’s footprint in and around the Capitol. And while many Proud Boys have been identified, this simple tactic complicated efforts to finger full-fledged members. This may result in individuals being charged but not identified in government documents as associated with the Proud Boys, and it may also result in uncharged individuals not being recognized as associated with the Proud Boys. 

It is also important to recognize that online sleuths have played a crucial role in identifying members of the Proud Boys, and they have often made such identifications before the government does.

III. Mapping the Proud Boys’ January 6th Network

Accompanying this analysis is a “Heat Map” that graphically represents the hometowns for the charged Proud Boys and their close associates. These locations were listed on the DOJ’s website, which often provides the defendant’s city or town of residence, but sometimes refers to the location of arrest instead.

Filter by

We are grateful to the exceptional team at NPR for their detailed database of January 6th Capitol riot cases, from which we drew the data. All errors are our own.

The map highlights an additional analytic point concerning the Proud Boys’ responsibility for the Jan. 6 attack. It also provides compelling evidence of the group’s organizational structure at the time.

As the map shows, the Proud Boys’ senior leadership relied on personnel from around the country to storm the U.S. Capitol. The 100 defendants shown on the map are from 24 states and Washington, D.C. More defendants came from Florida (24 Proud Boys and associates in total) than any other state. This makes sense as the group is known to have well-established chapters in the state. For instance, two of the Proud Boys’ most influential leaders – Enrique Tarrio and Joseph Biggs – are from Florida.

During the seditious conspiracy trial of the group’s top leadership, federal prosecutors described some of these members and their associates as “tools” of the Proud Boy leadership’s January 6th conspiracy. While some of these “tools” may have traveled to Washington, D.C. as individual members or associates of the group, others belonged to official chapters in states around the country. 

For example, the DOJ’s court filings tie the Jan. 6 defendants represented on Just Security’s map to the following Proud Boy chapters: an Arizona chapter; the “Central New York” chapter; the “Charlotte Proud Boys” chapter in North Carolina; the “Honolulu chapter” (Hawaii); the “Hudson Valley chapter” in New York; the “Kansas City chapter”; a Maryland/District of Columbia chapter; a “local chapter” in New Jersey; the “Philadelphia Proud Boys chapter”; the “Seattle Chapter”; a “local Proud Boys chapter in South Carolina”; the “South Florida Broward Chapter” (Miami); the “Space Coast” (or “Space Force”) chapter in central Florida; and the “Zone 5” (also known as the “Hurricane Coast” chapter) in southwest Florida. It is likely that additional Proud Boys chapters are represented in the population of Jan. 6 defendants (as well as uncharged individuals).

The charged Jan. 6 defendants include not only members of these chapters, but also chapter leaders. For instance, the DOJ has charged Proud Boys who served as: the president of a chapter in North Carolina; the vice president of a chapter in North Carolina; the vice president of a chapter in South Carolina; the founder of Hawaii chapter; the president of the Philadelphia chapter; the vice president of a chapter in New Jersey; the leader of Maryland chapter; the president of a chapter in West Virginia; the vice president of the Space Force (or “Space Coast”) chapter in Orlando. Some of these chapter leaders were directly integrated into the Proud Boys’ national leadership. For example, Bertino, Donohoe and Rehl (discussed above) were all local chapter leaders and joined Tarrio’s MOSD.

This analysis demonstrates how the Proud Boys’ hierarchy worked as of early 2021. It is important to remember that Tarrio established the MOSD only a few weeks prior to the January 6th attack. Yet, he was able to quickly integrate chapter leaders and members from around the country into the MOSD – a key move that increased the group’s ability to direct personnel and, ultimately, harness the power of the mob (the “normies”) to overrun the Capitol.

IV. The Ongoing Threat Posed by the Proud Boys

Even though scores of Proud Boys and the group’s top leaders were imprisoned for their roles in the January 6th attack, the organization continues to evolve – and pose a threat.

Since early 2021, according to ACLED, the Proud Boys have “consistently rank[ed] as one of the most active and violent far-right groups in the United States.” The group often seeks to capitalize on rightwing cultural grievances. Prior to January 6th, the Proud Boys made appearances at events supporting second amendment rights, opposing COVID vaccines and restrictions, as well as at “Stop the Steal” rallies pushing baseless claims of election fraud. In 2022 and 2023, the Proud Boys flexed their muscle at demonstrations opposed to abortion and LGBTQ+ rights.

Throughout 2024, the Proud Boys have increasingly made their presence felt at pro-Trump rallies. That is no accident. As a federal prosecutor explained to jurors during closing arguments in the Proud Boys’ seditious conspiracy trial, the group’s members “saw themselves as Donald Trump’s army, fighting to keep their preferred leader in power no matter what the law or the courts had to say about it.” Many in the group continue to view themselves that way today. Not to miss an opportunity, Proud Boys also showed up on the streets of Springfield, Ohio in the wake of Trump’s targeting the town with racist smears of the Haitian population.

Earlier this year, Aram Roston of Reuters published a detailed investigation titled, “The Proud Boys are back: How the far-right group is rebuilding to rally behind Trump.” Citing “interviews with members,” Roston reported that the Proud Boys have “made changes designed to make them less vulnerable to law enforcement scrutiny, including doing away with layers of top leadership.” The Proud Boys “now operate with self-governing chapters in more than 40 states, with little apparent central coordination,” as the “chapters are largely independent of each other.” That is, according to those interviews, this organizational structure is meant to make the group less vulnerable to RICO-style charges, which would allow law enforcement to quickly roll up many of its members nationwide.

The Proud Boys may be more decentralized today than they were on January 6th. However, the Proud Boys’ chapters have always maintained at least some degree of autonomy. And it is possible that new leaders, wary of federal investigators, do not want to reveal their guiding hand. Interviews of the members should be taken with a grain of salt.

It is important to keep in mind that the U.S. government has consistently misjudged the leadership structure and organization of militant groups, including foreign terrorist organizations. What’s more, for more than two decades, the U.S. military has killed or captured the top leaders of foreign terrorist organizations, believing that this spelled the death knell for their group, only to learn that capable replacements were waiting in the wings.

Similarly, federal law enforcement agencies have too often downplayed the leadership capabilities of extremists inside the United States. For instance, in their first three strategic assessments on domestic terrorism after January 6th, the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) highlighted the threat “posed by lone offenders” and “small groups,” but said little or nothing about larger groups operating across state lines. The central lesson of January 6th clearly did not sink in: The Proud Boys’ leadership marshaled a nationwide network, utilizing chapters in multiple states, to overrun the Capitol. That’s reflected in the Heat Map, but also readily apparent to close observers.

It is still an important lesson today, given the possibility that the Proud Boys’ January 6th leadership may return to the fold. Former President Donald Trump has said he could consider pardoning all those convicted of Jan. 6-related crimes should he win the election in November. “Oh, absolutely, I would. If they’re innocent, I would pardon them,” Trump said in July. “They were convicted by a very tough system,” Trump added, implying that the Jan. 6 defendants have been wrongly convicted.

As mentioned above, Trump has also said he would “certainly look” into pardoning Tarrio, claiming the Proud Boys leader and others have been treated “horribly.”

The very prospect of a presidential pardon serves a source of motivation for the Proud Boys. “Some Proud Boys say they are preparing to emerge once again as a physical force for Trump,” Roston reported, because they are “drawn to his hardline nationalism and convinced their leaders will be pardoned if he wins.” 

And the Proud Boys’ imprisoned leaders tell their followers that they should expect a pardon. “I do believe Donald J. Trump will pardon us – and he should,” Joe Biggs, who led the Proud Boys on January 6th, told InfoWars host Alex Jones from behind bars last year. “We didn’t do anything,” Biggs falsely claimed. Biggs’ interview with Jones was recorded after he had been convicted of seditious conspiracy. Jones has a longstanding and close relationship with the Proud Boys. Biggs used to host programs on InfoWars. And the January 6th Committee found that Jones had multiple contacts with the Proud Boys, including on January 6th, when the InfoWars host led a crowd onto the Capitol’s grounds. Jones was accompanied by at least one Proud Boy, the head of a Tennessee chapter of the organization (Matthew Walter), during his march. On the morning of January 6th, Nordean reportedly told others that they would “link up with Alex Jones.” Biggs said they’d “merge with Alex as they’re comin’ in and we’ll do our s—.

Should Trump win and pardon the Proud Boys’ leadership, it could usher in a new wave of rightwing extremism. Trump’s “stand back and stand by” remark during a 2020 presidential debate electrified the group. Jeremy Bertino, who pleaded guilty to seditious conspiracy, told the January 6th Select Committee that their membership “tripled” after Trump’s order.

A Trump pardon could be an even bigger boon for the Proud Boys. In addition to returning skilled leaders to the fold, a presidential pardon would serve as an endorsement for the Proud Boy’s seditious cause – a message to the MAGA movement’s “normie” followers that it is a legitimate organization deserving of widespread support. In that scenario, Tarrio, Biggs, Nordean, and Rehl – all convicted felons – would receive a hero’s welcome in many quarters. They’d likely have dedicated cadres around the country, representing dozens of chapters, to lead.   

Even if the Proud Boys’ senior leadership remains imprisoned, federal law enforcement and security agencies cannot afford to underestimate the group once again. In the months leading up to Jan. 6, the Department of Homeland Security, FBI, and other agencies collected (but overlooked) a stream of threats showing that some of President Trump’s supporters could become violent. But they did not detect the Proud Boys’ plan to harness the mob’s rage and prevent the peaceful transfer of power for the first time in American history.

Make no mistake…the Proud Boys did it. They’d be willing to do much more, if they can harness the capacity to do so.